Pacers vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 52¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Under
9
Under 67%
$19.3K
$30.15
53.7¢ → 51.5¢
-4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 53.7¢ | $10.1K | $9.7K | -$386.45 | 30% 29-67 (96) |
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $6.3K | $6.6K | +$343.24 | 0% 0-42 (42) |
 nigiri99CTR | Overavg 47¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$75 | 43% 26-35 (61) |
 RN1 | Underavg 53.5¢ | $273.32 | $266.07 | -$7.44 | 54% 230-199 (429) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Overavg 42.9¢ | $148.78 | $160.67 | +$11.9 | 4% 5-123 (128) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $75.6 | $72.8 | -$2.8 | 49% 377-392 (769) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $68.83 | $67.58 | -$1.9 | 52% 59-54 (113) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 55.8¢ | $19.53 | $18.2 | -$1.33 | 48% 171-185 (356) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $7.87 | $7.86 | -$0.08 | 69% 27-12 (39) |
Invested
$10,063.52
Value
$9.7K
PnL
-$386.45
Record
30%
29-67 (96)
Invested
$6,315.43
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$343.24
Record
0%
0-42 (42)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$2,350
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$75
Record
43%
26-35 (61)
RN1Invested
$273.32
Value
$266.07
PnL
-$7.44
Record
54%
230-199 (429)
Invested
$148.78
Value
$160.67
PnL
+$11.9
Record
4%
5-123 (128)
Invested
$75.6
Value
$72.8
PnL
-$2.8
Record
49%
377-392 (769)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$68.83
Value
$67.58
PnL
-$1.9
Record
52%
59-54 (113)
Invested
$19.53
Value
$18.2
PnL
-$1.33
Record
48%
171-185 (356)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$7.87
Value
$7.86
PnL
-$0.08
Record
69%
27-12 (39)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.