Pacers vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 57¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 10

Over57¢Under43¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

Total Value

$14.6K

Combined PnL

$282.28

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 57.5¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares17,233

Combined PnL+$910.32

Under8 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares11,093

Combined PnL-$628.03

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Overavg 52.6¢	$5.0K	$5.4K	+$458.92	—
IA ianf2026CTR	Underavg 48¢	$4.2K	$3.7K	-$477.62	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 53¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$201.6	—
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 50.7¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$243.35	—
KA KasonWongCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.0K	$850	-$150	—
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 57¢	$226.43	$232.49	+$6.07	—
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 42¢	$134.4	$136	+$1.6	—
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 44.7¢	$32.5	$30.91	-$1.58	—
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$3.28	$3.36	+$0.08	—
LooksMaxxingx<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.52	$2.9	+$0.38	—
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.13	-$0.33	—
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$0.99	$0.86	-$0.13	—
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$0.51	$0.46	-$0.05	—

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$4,955.85

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$458.92

Record

—

ianf2026CTR

Under

Invested

$4,168.32

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$477.62

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$2,116.72

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$201.6

Record

—

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$1,704.25

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$243.35

Record

—

KasonWongCTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$850

PnL

-$150

Record

—

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$226.43

Value

$232.49

PnL

+$6.07

Record

—

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$134.4

Value

$136

PnL

+$1.6

Record

—

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.5

Value

$30.91

PnL

-$1.58

Record

—

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.28

Value

$3.36

PnL

+$0.08

Record

—

LooksMaxxingx<$100

Over

Invested

$2.52

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.38

Record

—

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.33

Record

—

NM-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.99

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$0.13

Record

—

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.51

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$0.05

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.