Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (25%) · Pacers at 56¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
8
Pacers 25%
$12.1K
-$298.4
57.9¢ → 55.5¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Pacersavg 57.9¢ | $8.4K | $8.0K | -$346.69 | — |
FO forecastication4CTR | Mavericksavg 42¢ | $3.8K | $3.8K | +$43.1 | — |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Mavericksavg 42¢ | $109.12 | $110.36 | +$1.24 | — |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 42.7¢ | $34.13 | $35.6 | +$1.47 | — |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 40.6¢ | $29.25 | $30.6 | +$1.35 | — |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 43¢ | $27.52 | $28.48 | +$0.96 | — |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Pacersavg 57.2¢ | $19.22 | $19.31 | +$0.09 | — |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 42¢ | $6.6 | $6.68 | +$0.08 | — |
nigiri99Invested
$8,375.88
Value
$8.0K
PnL
-$346.69
Record
—
Invested
$3,792.83
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$43.1
Record
—
Invested
$109.12
Value
$110.36
PnL
+$1.24
Record
—
Invested
$34.13
Value
$35.6
PnL
+$1.47
Record
—
Invested
$29.25
Value
$30.6
PnL
+$1.35
Record
—
Invested
$27.52
Value
$28.48
PnL
+$0.96
Record
—
Invested
$19.22
Value
$19.31
PnL
+$0.09
Record
—
Invested
$6.6
Value
$6.68
PnL
+$0.08
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.