Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (56%) · Pacers at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10

Mavericks46¢Pacers54¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 56%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$32.52

Smart Money Entry

53.2¢ → 54.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks46%

Pacers55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,129

Combined PnL+$31.38

Mavericks4 traders

Total Value$696.99

Total Shares1,532

Combined PnL+$1.14

Pacers — 56%Mavericks — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePacers 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrPacers 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Pacersavg 53.9¢	$737.53	$745.02	+$7.49	45% 14909-18248 (33157)
LI LimousinCTR	Mavericksavg 45¢	$366.24	$370.31	+$4.07	46% 2861-3344 (6205)
VE Venusian	Pacersavg 49¢	$173.77	$197.3	+$23.53	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
38 38791873984189	Pacersavg 55.3¢	$195.39	$192.57	-$2.82	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Mavericksavg 44¢	$170.43	$172.32	+$1.89	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 48¢	$97.18	$90.24	-$6.94	50% 24147-24262 (48409)
SE sentrioCTR	Mavericksavg 44¢	$140.92	$64.12	+$2.11	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
MA MadridTime<$100	Pacersavg 49¢	$23.57	$26.76	+$3.19	45% 2764-3372 (6136)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Pacersavg 55¢	$2.22	$1.21	-$0.01	54% 20342-17178 (37520)

nigiri99

Pacers

Invested

$737.53

Value

$745.02

PnL

+$7.49

Record

45%

14909-18248 (33157)

LimousinCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$366.24

Value

$370.31

PnL

+$4.07

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

Venusian

Pacers

Invested

$173.77

Value

$197.3

PnL

+$23.53

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

38791873984189

Pacers

Invested

$195.39

Value

$192.57

PnL

-$2.82

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

FlaznorpCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$170.43

Value

$172.32

PnL

+$1.89

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$97.18

Value

$90.24

PnL

-$6.94

Record

50%

24147-24262 (48409)

sentrioCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$140.92

Value

$64.12

PnL

+$2.11

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

MadridTime<$100

Pacers

Invested

$23.57

Value

$26.76

PnL

+$3.19

Record

45%

2764-3372 (6136)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.22

Value

$1.21

PnL

-$0.01

Record

54%

20342-17178 (37520)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePacers 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrPacers 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.