Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (67%) · Pacers at 52¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 10

Mavericks49¢Pacers51¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$51.88

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks49%

Pacers52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers6 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares18,030

Combined PnL+$60.83

Mavericks3 traders

Total Value$199.84

Total Shares412

Combined PnL-$8.95

Pacers — 67%Mavericks — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePacers 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrPacers 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Pacersavg 51¢	$6.4K	$6.5K	+$63.07	54% 1504-1279 (2783)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Pacersavg 52¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$16.69	48% 575-623 (1198)
nigiri99	Pacersavg 50.6¢	$864.16	$878.59	+$14.43	45% 14909-18248 (33157)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Mavericksavg 50¢	$600	$198	-$2	57% 215-161 (376)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 50¢	$100	$102	+$2
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 50¢	$100	$96	-$4
38 38791873984189	Pacersavg 51.6¢	$167.99	$167.76	-$0.23	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Mavericksavg 51¢	$148.75	$141.51	-$7.24	50% 24147-24262 (48409)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 50¢	$57.81	$56.08	-$1.73	46% 2861-3344 (6205)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Pacersavg 52¢	$21.49	$21.7	+$0.21	54% 20342-17178 (37520)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Pacersavg 52¢	$5.11	$5.15	+$0.04	53% 14841-13046 (27887)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 47¢	$2.24	$2.26	+$0.02	57% 22821-16910 (39731)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Pacers

Invested

$6,433.39

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$63.07

Record

54%

1504-1279 (2783)

Multicoloured-Serf

Pacers

Invested

$1,736

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$16.69

Record

48%

575-623 (1198)

nigiri99

Pacers

Invested

$864.16

Value

$878.59

PnL

+$14.43

Record

45%

14909-18248 (33157)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$600

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

57%

215-161 (376)

Both legs:

Invested

$167.99

Value

$167.76

PnL

-$0.23

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$148.75

Value

$141.51

PnL

-$7.24

Record

50%

24147-24262 (48409)

LimousinCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$57.81

Value

$56.08

PnL

-$1.73

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Pacers

Invested

$21.49

Value

$21.7

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

20342-17178 (37520)

ameisgoat11<$100

Pacers

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

14841-13046 (27887)

NM-PCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$2.24

Value

$2.26

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

22821-16910 (39731)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePacers 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrPacers 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.