Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Rockets vs. Wizards: O/U 223.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 50¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 63%
1 arb excluded
$4.6K
$1.99
48.7¢ → 49.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 50.5¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$51.04 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.5¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$51.04 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49¢ | $795.63 | $795.63 | -$0 | |
HI hi774cCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$0 | 26% 249-694 (943) |
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR | Overavg 48.3¢ | $558.51 | $572.68 | +$14.17 | 48% 131-144 (275) |
NM NM-P | Underavg 52¢ | $182 | $176.75 | -$5.25 | 59% 3949-2729 (6678) |
GC GC-P | Underavg 52¢ | $181.99 | $176.74 | -$5.25 | 42% 548-747 (1295) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $77.32 | $75.09 | -$2.23 | 41% 1175-1673 (2848) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $14.04 | $14.18 | +$0.14 | 38% 1342-2182 (3524) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 47.8¢ | $11.77 | $12.07 | +$0.29 | 56% 665-530 (1195) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $1.81 | $1.92 | +$0.12 | 35% 628-1146 (1774) |
Invested
$2,555.35
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$51.04
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,010
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$0
Record
26%
249-694 (943)
Invested
$558.51
Value
$572.68
PnL
+$14.17
Record
48%
131-144 (275)
Invested
$182
Value
$176.75
PnL
-$5.25
Record
59%
3949-2729 (6678)
Invested
$181.99
Value
$176.74
PnL
-$5.25
Record
42%
548-747 (1295)
Invested
$77.32
Value
$75.09
PnL
-$2.23
Record
41%
1175-1673 (2848)
Invested
$14.04
Value
$14.18
PnL
+$0.14
Record
38%
1342-2182 (3524)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$11.77
Value
$12.07
PnL
+$0.29
Record
56%
665-530 (1195)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$1.92
PnL
+$0.12
Record
35%
628-1146 (1774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.