Spread: Rockets (-12.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (50%) · Rockets at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 29

Rockets>99¢Bucks<1¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 50%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$125.87

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 99.1¢

+78% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets99%

Bucks1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bucks2 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,276

Combined PnL+$618.82

Rockets2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,271

Combined PnL-$492.95

Bucks — 50%Rockets — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA gagarin59CTR	Bucksavg 44¢	$1.4K	$2.0K	+$618.13	52% 657-608 (1265)
HO HomeRunHazard	Rocketsavg 55.9¢	$2.4K	$1.9K	-$492.77	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Bucksavg 60¢	$13.86	$14.55	+$0.69	36% 14918-27049 (41967)
HRTrading<$100	Rocketsavg 37.9¢	$7.93	$7.75	-$0.18	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

gagarin59CTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,431.45

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$618.13

Record

52%

657-608 (1265)

HomeRunHazard

Rockets

Invested

$2,384.52

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$492.77

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$13.86

Value

$14.55

PnL

+$0.69

Record

36%

14918-27049 (41967)

HRTrading<$100

Rockets

Invested

$7.93

Value

$7.75

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.