Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 90¢ · $321 held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 43%
$321.21
-$31.1
59¢ → 89.5¢
+52% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO tomb2456 | Underavg 59¢ | $248.61 | $252.82 | +$4.21 | 53% 31-28 (59) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $63.29 | $34.66 | -$28.63 | 57% 3570-2717 (6287) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $21.36 | $21.72 | +$0.36 | 48% 855-936 (1791) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $9.99 | $5.61 | -$4.39 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
SU SunlineTicker<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $4.01 | $4.01 | +$0 | 70% 1714-741 (2455) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $2.99 | $1.23 | -$1.75 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $2.05 | $1.15 | -$0.9 | 45% 224-276 (500) |
Invested
$248.61
Value
$252.82
PnL
+$4.21
Record
53%
31-28 (59)
Invested
$63.29
Value
$34.66
PnL
-$28.63
Record
57%
3570-2717 (6287)
Invested
$21.36
Value
$21.72
PnL
+$0.36
Record
48%
855-936 (1791)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$5.61
PnL
-$4.39
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
Invested
$4.01
Value
$4.01
PnL
+$0
Record
70%
1714-741 (2455)
Invested
$2.99
Value
$1.23
PnL
-$1.75
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$1.15
PnL
-$0.9
Record
45%
224-276 (500)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.