Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 69¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
$1.3K
$15.58
66.6¢ → 68.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 69%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 66.9¢ | $839.03 | $859.5 | +$20.47 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 67.3¢ | $249.51 | $159.92 | +$6.69 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
PU purplegattoCTR | Overavg 36.6¢ | $150.22 | $129.15 | -$21.07 | 69% 2587-1182 (3769) |
FO forecastication4<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $79.36 | $87.68 | +$8.32 | 19% 50-220 (270) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 67.3¢ | $55.88 | $56.86 | +$0.98 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 67.5¢ | $9.18 | $9.38 | +$0.2 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
Invested
$839.03
Value
$859.5
PnL
+$20.47
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$249.51
Value
$159.92
PnL
+$6.69
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$150.22
Value
$129.15
PnL
-$21.07
Record
69%
2587-1182 (3769)
Invested
$79.36
Value
$87.68
PnL
+$8.32
Record
19%
50-220 (270)
Invested
$55.88
Value
$56.86
PnL
+$0.98
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$9.18
Value
$9.38
PnL
+$0.2
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.