Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 63¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$173.38

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 62.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$659.26

Total Shares1,783

Combined PnL-$15.94

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,901

Combined PnL+$189.33

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NE neymar1CTR	Overavg 36.6¢	$569.78	$583.13	+$13.35	— 2-6 (8)
AN Anon455	Underavg 63¢	$361.81	$421.9	+$60.09	46% 200-233 (433)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 63.2¢	$312.16	$368.03	+$55.87	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 64¢	$269.47	$313.68	+$44.21	47% 350-393 (743)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 40.2¢	$226.9	$204.67	-$22.23	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$81.54	$112.5	+$30.96
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.2¢	$145.36	$92.18	-$53.18
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 58.8¢	$111.86	$141.63	+$29.76	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
RN1	Underavg 64.4¢	$102.63	$99.61	-$3.02	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$69.46	$56.63	-$12.83	39% 233-367 (600)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 67.7¢	$40.5	$24.16	-$4.34	49% 786-829 (1615)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 63.6¢	$18.28	$20.7	+$2.41	55% 729-596 (1325)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$35.96	$19.51	-$16.45	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Underavg 55¢	$12.22	$16.56	+$4.33	53% 305-275 (580)

neymar1CTR

Over

Invested

$569.78

Value

$583.13

PnL

+$13.35

Record

—

2-6 (8)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$361.81

Value

$421.9

PnL

+$60.09

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$312.16

Value

$368.03

PnL

+$55.87

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$269.47

Value

$313.68

PnL

+$44.21

Record

47%

350-393 (743)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$226.9

Value

$204.67

PnL

-$22.23

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Both legs:

Under$81.5454¢+$30.96

Over$145.3640.2¢-$53.18

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$111.86

Value

$141.63

PnL

+$29.76

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

RN1

Under

Invested

$102.63

Value

$99.61

PnL

-$3.02

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$69.46

Value

$56.63

PnL

-$12.83

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$40.5

Value

$24.16

PnL

-$4.34

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$18.28

Value

$20.7

PnL

+$2.41

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.96

Value

$19.51

PnL

-$16.45

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Under

Invested

$12.22

Value

$16.56

PnL

+$4.33

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.