Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 214.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 63¢ · $560 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 17%
$560.04
$2.87
Research grade
AvoidOver at 63%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PU purplegatto | Overavg 64¢ | $312.32 | $305 | -$7.32 | 69% 2587-1182 (3769) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 36¢ | $193.4 | $201.41 | +$8.01 | 47% 299-342 (641) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $47.15 | $49.12 | +$1.96 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $2.19 | $2.19 | +$0 | 55% 680-552 (1232) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $1.8 | +$0.15 | 31% 410-923 (1333) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $0.45 | $0.52 | +$0.07 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
Invested
$312.32
Value
$305
PnL
-$7.32
Record
69%
2587-1182 (3769)
Invested
$193.4
Value
$201.41
PnL
+$8.01
Record
47%
299-342 (641)
Invested
$47.15
Value
$49.12
PnL
+$1.96
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Invested
$2.19
Value
$2.19
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
680-552 (1232)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.8
PnL
+$0.15
Record
31%
410-923 (1333)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.52
PnL
+$0.07
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.