Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rockets, while the market favors Warriors (67%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Rockets (-11.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (67%) · Rockets at 33¢ · $329 held · ends Nov 12

Rockets33¢Warriors67¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 67%

Total Value

$329.03

Combined PnL

$8.32

Smart Money Entry

32.1¢ → 33¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets33%

Warriors67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets4 traders

Total Value$309.15

Total Shares937

Combined PnL+$8.28

Warriors2 traders

Total Value$19.88

Total Shares25

Combined PnL+$0.04

Rockets — 67%Warriors — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRockets 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Rocketsavg 32¢	$194.87	$200.96	+$6.09	51% 1851-1805 (3656)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 32.4¢	$78.39	$79.92	+$1.53	45% 267-322 (589)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 32¢	$21.07	$21.73	+$0.66	38% 351-584 (935)
FO forecastication4<$100	Warriorsavg 68¢	$10.5	$10.34	-$0.15	18% 48-217 (265)
38 38791873984189<$100	Warriorsavg 66¢	$9.34	$9.54	+$0.19	48% 1375-1500 (2875)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 32¢	$6.54	$6.54	+$0	31% 390-871 (1261)

FlaznorpCTR

Rockets

Invested

$194.87

Value

$200.96

PnL

+$6.09

Record

51%

1851-1805 (3656)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$78.39

Value

$79.92

PnL

+$1.53

Record

45%

267-322 (589)

sentrioCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$21.07

Value

$21.73

PnL

+$0.66

Record

38%

351-584 (935)

forecastication4<$100

Warriors

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.34

PnL

-$0.15

Record

18%

48-217 (265)

38791873984189<$100

Warriors

Invested

$9.34

Value

$9.54

PnL

+$0.19

Record

48%

1375-1500 (2875)

VenusianCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$6.54

Value

$6.54

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

390-871 (1261)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRockets 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.