Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 222.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$33.58

Smart Money Entry

46.4¢ → 47.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,704

Combined PnL+$26.95

Under6 traders

Total Value$267.24

Total Shares490

Combined PnL+$6.63

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Overavg 46¢	$664.93	$686.61	+$21.68	48% 116-124 (240)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 47¢	$543.32	$549.1	+$5.78	52% 352-329 (681)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 53¢	$135.23	$138.52	+$3.29	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$107.06	$110.09	+$3.03
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.1¢	$28.17	$28.43	+$0.26
VeryLucky888	Underavg 53¢	$132.5	$136.25	+$3.75	52% 773-714 (1487)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 53¢	$71.35	$73.37	+$2.02	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$47.15	$46.64	-$0.51	52% 13-12 (25)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 55¢	$19.99	$19.81	-$0.18	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 53¢	$13.25	$13.63	+$0.38	49% 1077-1133 (2210)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 53¢	$12.92	$13.28	+$0.37	54% 994-856 (1850)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 53¢	$10.6	$10.9	+$0.3	54% 278-237 (515)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Over

Invested

$664.93

Value

$686.61

PnL

+$21.68

Record

48%

116-124 (240)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$543.32

Value

$549.1

PnL

+$5.78

Record

52%

352-329 (681)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$135.23

Value

$138.52

PnL

+$3.29

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

Both legs:

Under$107.0653¢+$3.03

Over$28.1745.1¢+$0.26

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$132.5

Value

$136.25

PnL

+$3.75

Record

52%

773-714 (1487)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$71.35

Value

$73.37

PnL

+$2.02

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.15

Value

$46.64

PnL

-$0.51

Record

52%

13-12 (25)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$19.99

Value

$19.81

PnL

-$0.18

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$13.25

Value

$13.63

PnL

+$0.38

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$12.92

Value

$13.28

PnL

+$0.37

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$10.6

Value

$10.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

278-237 (515)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.