Spread: Pistons (-11.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (33%) · Wizards at 55¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 13

Pistons46¢Wizards54¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 33%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$33.78

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 54.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons46%

Wizards55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,839

Combined PnL-$5.92

Pistons6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,774

Combined PnL+$39.7

Wizards — 33%Pistons — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Wizardsavg 55¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$13.68	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
AP AppleTiiimeCTR	Pistonsavg 45¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$35.14	53% 93-84 (177)
nigiri99	Wizardsavg 54¢	$908.28	$916.69	+$8.41	52% 352-329 (681)
NM NM-PCTR	Pistonsavg 46¢	$230	$232.5	+$2.5	59% 3535-2417 (5952)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Pistonsavg 46¢	$160.22	$160.22	+$0	48% 579-615 (1194)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 46¢	$79.88	$80.75	+$0.87	26% 153-428 (581)
RA RaisuuCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 45¢	$68.29	$69.05	+$0.76	54% 25-21 (46)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 46¢	$39.88	$40.31	+$0.43	46% 440-515 (955)
SU suntori<$100	Wizardsavg 54¢	$40.66	$40.01	-$0.65	47% 1625-1826 (3451)

HomeRunHazard

Wizards

Invested

$1,720.42

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$13.68

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

AppleTiiimeCTR

Pistons

Invested

$1,581.18

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$35.14

Record

53%

93-84 (177)

nigiri99

Wizards

Invested

$908.28

Value

$916.69

PnL

+$8.41

Record

52%

352-329 (681)

NM-PCTR

Pistons

Invested

$230

Value

$232.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

59%

3535-2417 (5952)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Pistons

Invested

$160.22

Value

$160.22

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

579-615 (1194)

GC-PCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$79.88

Value

$80.75

PnL

+$0.87

Record

26%

153-428 (581)

RaisuuCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$68.29

Value

$69.05

PnL

+$0.76

Record

54%

25-21 (46)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$39.88

Value

$40.31

PnL

+$0.43

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

suntori<$100

Wizards

Invested

$40.66

Value

$40.01

PnL

-$0.65

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.