Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 230.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 72¢ · $461 held · ended Nov 15

Over72¢Under28¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$461.22

Combined PnL

$36.16

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 72¢

+58% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over72%

Under28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$387.75

Total Shares584

Combined PnL+$58.31

Under2 traders

Total Value$73.47

Total Shares190

Combined PnL-$22.15

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 45.6¢	$309.12	$361.54	+$52.42	56% 3745-2909 (6654)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 55.8¢	$62.55	$49.34	-$13.21	46% 2924-3473 (6397)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 45¢	$19.53	$25.18	+$5.64	53% 2030-1802 (3832)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 38.4¢	$33.07	$24.13	-$8.94	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 44¢	$0.79	$1.04	+$0.25	54% 1599-1379 (2978)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$309.12

Value

$361.54

PnL

+$52.42

Record

56%

3745-2909 (6654)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$62.55

Value

$49.34

PnL

-$13.21

Record

46%

2924-3473 (6397)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$19.53

Value

$25.18

PnL

+$5.64

Record

53%

2030-1802 (3832)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.07

Value

$24.13

PnL

-$8.94

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$0.79

Value

$1.04

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

1599-1379 (2978)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.