Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 228.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 49¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$8.8K
-$15.98
49¢ → 48.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nehcnehcCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $4.7K | $4.7K | -$48.26 | 36% 54-95 (149) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Overavg 51¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | +$33.09 | 50% 2532-2495 (5027) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 51¢ | $678.09 | $678.04 | -$0.05 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $19.04 | $18.32 | -$0.72 | 46% 2702-3200 (5902) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $3.69 | $3.65 | -$0.04 | 53% 1809-1607 (3416) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.4 | +$0 | 41% 700-1011 (1711) |
nehcnehcCTRInvested
$4,729.96
Value
$4.7K
PnL
-$48.26
Record
36%
54-95 (149)
Invested
$3,375.23
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$33.09
Record
50%
2532-2495 (5027)
Invested
$678.09
Value
$678.04
PnL
-$0.05
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$19.04
Value
$18.32
PnL
-$0.72
Record
46%
2702-3200 (5902)
Invested
$3.69
Value
$3.65
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
1809-1607 (3416)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
700-1011 (1711)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.