Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (85%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 226.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 16¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over85¢Under15¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$227.02

Smart Money Entry

42.6¢ → 15.5¢

-64% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over85%

Under16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$286.93

Total Shares1,263

Combined PnL-$250.94

Over4 traders

Total Value$125.12

Total Shares140

Combined PnL+$23.92

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 43¢	$1.2K	$610.38	-$572.51	56% 3778-2937 (6715)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$1.0K	$371.59	-$658.71
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$152.6	$238.8	+$86.19
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 44¢	$264.26	$198.2	-$66.06	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 70¢	$65.79	$85.06	+$19.27	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 43¢	$217.21	$43.23	-$151.98	54% 1641-1409 (3050)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$43.12	$32.34	-$10.78	43% 216-282 (498)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 56¢	$21.06	$21.58	+$0.51	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
GC GC-P<$100	Overavg 53.5¢	$10.76	$14.07	+$3.32	41% 469-682 (1151)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 30.3¢	$26.99	$11.12	-$15.87	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 57¢	$3.59	$4.41	+$0.82	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 45.3¢	$6.8	$1.43	-$5.38	42% 740-1034 (1774)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$1.51	$0.63	-$0.88	48% 2325-2529 (4854)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,185.2

Value

$610.38

PnL

-$572.51

Record

56%

3778-2937 (6715)

Both legs:

Under$1,030.4443¢-$658.71

Over$152.654¢+$86.19

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$264.26

Value

$198.2

PnL

-$66.06

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$65.79

Value

$85.06

PnL

+$19.27

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$217.21

Value

$43.23

PnL

-$151.98

Record

54%

1641-1409 (3050)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.12

Value

$32.34

PnL

-$10.78

Record

43%

216-282 (498)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$21.06

Value

$21.58

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

GC-P<$100

Over

Invested

$10.76

Value

$14.07

PnL

+$3.32

Record

41%

469-682 (1151)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.99

Value

$11.12

PnL

-$15.87

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$3.59

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$0.82

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.8

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$5.38

Record

42%

740-1034 (1774)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.51

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$0.88

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.2%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$481.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

581.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.