Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 225.5
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 44¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 88%
$1.2K
$42.44
42.4¢ → 43.5¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 42¢ | $670.08 | $701.85 | +$31.77 | 56% 3718-2886 (6604) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Underavg 43¢ | $168.56 | $172.48 | +$3.92 | 56% 541-433 (974) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 43¢ | $149.6 | $153.08 | +$3.48 | 47% 985-1122 (2107) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 43¢ | $107.5 | $110 | +$2.5 | 54% 1525-1316 (2841) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $22.77 | $22.97 | +$0.2 | 47% 3383-3741 (7124) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $10.75 | $11 | +$0.25 | 49% 1694-1746 (3440) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $6.22 | $6.53 | +$0.31 | 49% 4123-4317 (8440) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $2.95 | $2.95 | +$0 | 53% 1938-1717 (3655) |
Invested
$670.08
Value
$701.85
PnL
+$31.77
Record
56%
3718-2886 (6604)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$168.56
Value
$172.48
PnL
+$3.92
Record
56%
541-433 (974)
Invested
$149.6
Value
$153.08
PnL
+$3.48
Record
47%
985-1122 (2107)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$107.5
Value
$110
PnL
+$2.5
Record
54%
1525-1316 (2841)
Invested
$22.77
Value
$22.97
PnL
+$0.2
Record
47%
3383-3741 (7124)
Invested
$10.75
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.25
Record
49%
1694-1746 (3440)
Invested
$6.22
Value
$6.53
PnL
+$0.31
Record
49%
4123-4317 (8440)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$2.95
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1938-1717 (3655)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.