Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (82%). 10 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 210.5

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 19¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 3

Over82¢Under18¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.0K

Combined PnL

-$349.89

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 18.5¢

-61% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over82%

Under19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares11,731

Combined PnL+$608.73

Under10 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares21,877

Combined PnL-$958.62

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ComingBack	Overavg 50¢	$4.7K	$6.7K	-$47.27	61% 4000-2514 (6514)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 49.6¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$144.96	54% 17545-14744 (32289)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 47.9¢	$981.7	$1.1K	+$82.89	51% 21008-19991 (40999)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 49.3¢	$1.1K	$897.76	-$615.2	50% 25084-24791 (49875)
SU suntori	Overavg 48.8¢	$499.89	$877.2	+$391.67	45% 13208-16070 (29278)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 42.4¢	$1.4K	$763.87	+$24.95	47% 13319-14853 (28172)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.7¢	$345.17	$584.7	+$239.53
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.4¢	$482.87	$179.18	-$214.58
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 49.4¢	$768.8	$525.4	-$243.4	54% 58447-50668 (109115)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.5¢	$242.5	$355	+$112.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.4¢	$526.3	$170.4	-$355.9
TA takeormake	Overavg 50.3¢	$283.58	$507.38	+$223.79	53% 4454-3891 (8345)
FE ferdinand2	Overavg 52¢	$310.5	$456.91	-$15.62	48% 5733-6182 (11915)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Underavg 49.2¢	$356.13	$209.54	-$146.59	54% 3482-3017 (6499)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$83.32	$120.75	+$37.43
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.2¢	$272.81	$88.79	-$184.02
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 51¢	$73.46	$129.55	+$56.09	50% 4090-4030 (8120)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 52¢	$208	$64	-$144	51% 1616-1562 (3178)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Underavg 51¢	$124.95	$39.2	-$85.75	72% 6950-2756 (9706)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 16¢	$160	$38	-$122	51% 4308-4133 (8441)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 50.9¢	$133.42	$14.41	-$119.01	52% 605-551 (1156)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$62.46	$11.71	-$50.75	55% 3200-2598 (5798)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 48.8¢	$33.04	$10.82	-$22.22	57% 17526-13092 (30618)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 61.4¢	$32.91	$5.36	-$27.55	52% 6768-6135 (12903)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.5	$3.55	+$0.08	52% 8302-7535 (15837)

ComingBack

Over

Invested

$4,727

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$47.27

Record

61%

4000-2514 (6514)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$2,563.65

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$144.96

Record

54%

17545-14744 (32289)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$981.7

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$82.89

Record

51%

21008-19991 (40999)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$1,086.86

Value

$897.76

PnL

-$615.2

Record

50%

25084-24791 (49875)

suntori

Over

Invested

$499.89

Value

$877.2

PnL

+$391.67

Record

45%

13208-16070 (29278)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,375.12

Value

$763.87

PnL

+$24.95

Record

47%

13319-14853 (28172)

Both legs:

Over$345.1749.7¢+$239.53

Under$482.8742.4¢-$214.58

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$768.8

Value

$525.4

PnL

-$243.4

Record

54%

58447-50668 (109115)

Both legs:

Over$242.548.5¢+$112.5

Under$526.349.4¢-$355.9

takeormake

Over

Invested

$283.58

Value

$507.38

PnL

+$223.79

Record

53%

4454-3891 (8345)

ferdinand2

Over

Invested

$310.5

Value

$456.91

PnL

-$15.62

Record

48%

5733-6182 (11915)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Under

Invested

$356.13

Value

$209.54

PnL

-$146.59

Record

54%

3482-3017 (6499)

Both legs:

Over$83.3249¢+$37.43

Under$272.8149.2¢-$184.02

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$73.46

Value

$129.55

PnL

+$56.09

Record

50%

4090-4030 (8120)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$208

Value

$64

PnL

-$144

Record

51%

1616-1562 (3178)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Under

Invested

$124.95

Value

$39.2

PnL

-$85.75

Record

72%

6950-2756 (9706)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$160

Value

$38

PnL

-$122

Record

51%

4308-4133 (8441)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$133.42

Value

$14.41

PnL

-$119.01

Record

52%

605-551 (1156)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$62.46

Value

$11.71

PnL

-$50.75

Record

55%

3200-2598 (5798)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.04

Value

$10.82

PnL

-$22.22

Record

57%

17526-13092 (30618)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.91

Value

$5.36

PnL

-$27.55

Record

52%

6768-6135 (12903)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.5

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

8302-7535 (15837)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.