Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pistons, while the market favors Nets (51%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Pistons (-7.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (83%) · Pistons at 50¢ · $529 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Pistons
6
Pistons 83%
$529.4
-$0.78
49.5¢ → 49.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidPistons at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Nets 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Pistonsavg 49¢ | $269.47 | $271.67 | +$2.2 | 54% 17100-14316 (31416) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Pistonsavg 50¢ | $160.5 | $158.9 | -$1.6 | 46% 7844-9262 (17106) |
D1 0xd106...c79cCTR<$100 | Pistonsavg 50¢ | $43 | $40.72 | -$2.28 | 54% 3290-2834 (6124) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Netsavg 50¢ | $28.12 | $29.33 | +$1.21 | 50% 6962-6953 (13915) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Pistonsavg 49¢ | $20.59 | $20.8 | +$0.21 | 58% 41458-30076 (71534) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Pistonsavg 50¢ | $8.5 | $7.99 | -$0.51 | 58% 28383-20951 (49334) |
Invested
$269.47
Value
$271.67
PnL
+$2.2
Record
54%
17100-14316 (31416)
Invested
$160.5
Value
$158.9
PnL
-$1.6
Record
46%
7844-9262 (17106)
Invested
$43
Value
$40.72
PnL
-$2.28
Record
54%
3290-2834 (6124)
Invested
$28.12
Value
$29.33
PnL
+$1.21
Record
50%
6962-6953 (13915)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$20.59
Value
$20.8
PnL
+$0.21
Record
58%
41458-30076 (71534)
Invested
$8.5
Value
$7.99
PnL
-$0.51
Record
58%
28383-20951 (49334)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.