Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 57¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 29%
$10.3K
$9.9
58¢ → 57.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU luckycat888888 | Underavg 58¢ | $5.8K | $5.8K | -$50 | 28% 47-121 (168) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 42¢ | $4.3K | $4.4K | +$51.12 | 56% 3718-2886 (6604) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $80.73 | $87.98 | +$7.24 | 49% 4123-4317 (8440) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $82.99 | $83.98 | +$0.99 | 47% 985-1122 (2107) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 41.1¢ | $16.15 | $16.7 | +$0.54 | 53% 1938-1717 (3655) |
SU SunlineTicker<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $11.8 | $11.5 | -$0.3 | 70% 1725-752 (2477) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 39.5¢ | $3.95 | $4.25 | +$0.3 | 37% 1085-1829 (2914) |
Invested
$5,800
Value
$5.8K
PnL
-$50
Record
28%
47-121 (168)
Invested
$4,328.04
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$51.12
Record
56%
3718-2886 (6604)
Invested
$80.73
Value
$87.98
PnL
+$7.24
Record
49%
4123-4317 (8440)
Invested
$82.99
Value
$83.98
PnL
+$0.99
Record
47%
985-1122 (2107)
Invested
$16.15
Value
$16.7
PnL
+$0.54
Record
53%
1938-1717 (3655)
Invested
$11.8
Value
$11.5
PnL
-$0.3
Record
70%
1725-752 (2477)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$4.25
PnL
+$0.3
Record
37%
1085-1829 (2914)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.