Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$50.48

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 54.5¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,458

Combined PnL+$11.06

Over5 traders

Total Value$755.12

Total Shares1,660

Combined PnL+$39.42

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO tomb2456	Underavg 56.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$6.68	53% 37-33 (70)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 43¢	$543.24	$574.83	+$31.58	70% 1724-751 (2475)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 43¢	$98.93	$104.68	+$5.75	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 56¢	$72.8	$74.1	+$1.3	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 55¢	$65.09	$67.46	+$2.37	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$62.48	$64.61	+$2.13	37% 985-1642 (2627)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 55.3¢	$20.47	$21.09	+$0.62	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$8.8	$8.8	-$0	54% 503-421 (924)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.85	+$0.1	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.2	-$0.05	41% 700-1011 (1711)

tomb2456

Under

Invested

$1,228.91

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$6.68

Record

53%

37-33 (70)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$543.24

Value

$574.83

PnL

+$31.58

Record

70%

1724-751 (2475)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$98.93

Value

$104.68

PnL

+$5.75

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$72.8

Value

$74.1

PnL

+$1.3

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$65.09

Value

$67.46

PnL

+$2.37

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$62.48

Value

$64.61

PnL

+$2.13

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$20.47

Value

$21.09

PnL

+$0.62

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.8

Value

$8.8

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.05

Record

41%

700-1011 (1711)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.