Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 50¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
$3.6K
$16.11
49.4¢ → 49.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO tomb2456 | Underavg 51¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$10 | 53% 37-33 (70) |
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $982.45 | $972.43 | -$10.03 | 50% 131-131 (262) |
 nigiri99CTR | Overavg 50¢ | $802 | $810.02 | +$8.02 | 52% 573-538 (1111) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 50¢ | $684.67 | $691.52 | +$6.85 | 50% 2560-2519 (5079) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $119.5 | $120.75 | +$1.24 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.58 | +$0.03 | 41% 705-1014 (1719) |
Invested
$1,020
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$10
Record
53%
37-33 (70)
Invested
$982.45
Value
$972.43
PnL
-$10.03
Record
50%
131-131 (262)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$802
Value
$810.02
PnL
+$8.02
Record
52%
573-538 (1111)
Invested
$684.67
Value
$691.52
PnL
+$6.85
Record
50%
2560-2519 (5079)
Invested
$119.5
Value
$120.75
PnL
+$1.24
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.58
PnL
+$0.03
Record
41%
705-1014 (1719)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.