Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$7.4

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 44.5¢

-5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$334.01

Total Shares690

Combined PnL+$7.38

Over2 traders

Total Value$27.15

Total Shares29

Combined PnL+$0.03

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 47¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$27.57	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$894.79	$847.31	-$47.95
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.1¢	$768.28	$788.67	+$20.39
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 47¢	$113.05	$115.46	+$2.41	37% 968-1674 (2642)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 47¢	$107.81	$110.1	+$2.29	42% 1008-1381 (2389)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$85.19	$87.04	+$1.85	36% 455-810 (1265)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 54¢	$24.37	$24.37	+$0	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$9.2	$9.6	+$0.4	54% 503-421 (924)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 45.5¢	$12.23	$7.23	+$0.23	41% 700-1011 (1711)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$4.39	$4.59	+$0.2	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
JO JoeyAroyyOO<$100	Overavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.78	+$0.03	50% 131-131 (262)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,770.05

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$27.57

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Both legs:

Under$894.7947¢-$47.95

Over$768.2854.1¢+$20.39

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$113.05

Value

$115.46

PnL

+$2.41

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$107.81

Value

$110.1

PnL

+$2.29

Record

42%

1008-1381 (2389)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$85.19

Value

$87.04

PnL

+$1.85

Record

36%

455-810 (1265)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$24.37

Value

$24.37

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0.4

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.23

Value

$7.23

PnL

+$0.23

Record

41%

700-1011 (1711)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.39

Value

$4.59

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

JoeyAroyyOO<$100

Over

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

131-131 (262)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.