Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (25%) · Nuggets at 63¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Nuggets63¢Pelicans37¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 25%

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

-$82.38

Smart Money Entry

65.7¢ → 63¢

-4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets63%

Pelicans37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets3 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares11,220

Combined PnL-$193.29

Pelicans9 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares6,691

Combined PnL+$110.91

Nuggets — 25%Pelicans — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNuggets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPelicans 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bigbeliever	Nuggetsavg 65.7¢	$6.8K	$6.7K	-$172.77	63% 26-15 (41)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Pelicansavg 33.7¢	$554.06	$592.17	+$38.11	70% 1725-752 (2477)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Pelicansavg 34¢	$544	$576	+$32	35% 166-306 (472)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Nuggetsavg 66¢	$536	$515.63	-$20.37	26% 375-1050 (1425)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Pelicansavg 34.3¢	$274	$284	+$10	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
38 38791873984189CTR	Pelicansavg 35.8¢	$287.26	$277.51	+$2.1	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Pelicansavg 34¢	$260.1	$271.58	+$11.47	45% 277-332 (609)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pelicansavg 34¢	$154.36	$163.44	+$9.08	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
FO forecastication4CTR	Pelicansavg 35¢	$122.5	$124.25	+$1.75	34% 175-339 (514)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 34¢	$79.68	$84.36	+$4.69	47% 985-1122 (2107)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 33.9¢	$27.82	$29.53	+$1.71	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
nigiri99<$100	Nuggetsavg 65¢	$9.75	$9.6	-$0.15	52% 602-565 (1167)

bigbeliever

Nuggets

Invested

$6,824.15

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$172.77

Record

63%

26-15 (41)

SunlineTickerCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$554.06

Value

$592.17

PnL

+$38.11

Record

70%

1725-752 (2477)

BoomLaLaCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$544

Value

$576

PnL

+$32

Record

35%

166-306 (472)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Nuggets

Invested

$536

Value

$515.63

PnL

-$20.37

Record

26%

375-1050 (1425)

topdogbigboiCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$274

Value

$284

PnL

+$10

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

38791873984189CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$287.26

Value

$277.51

PnL

+$2.1

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Forecastication2CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$260.1

Value

$271.58

PnL

+$11.47

Record

45%

277-332 (609)

FlaznorpCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$154.36

Value

$163.44

PnL

+$9.08

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

forecastication4CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$122.5

Value

$124.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

34%

175-339 (514)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$79.68

Value

$84.36

PnL

+$4.69

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$27.82

Value

$29.53

PnL

+$1.71

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

nigiri99<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$9.75

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNuggets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPelicans 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.