Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (13%) · Nuggets at 66¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Nuggets
8
Nuggets 13%
$15.2K
-$7.12
Research grade
AvoidNuggets at 66%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bigbeliever | Nuggetsavg 68.3¢ | $11.4K | $11.3K | -$54.34 | 63% 26-15 (41) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Pelicansavg 32¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$0 | 49% 3811-3974 (7785) |
FO forecastication4CTR | Pelicansavg 31¢ | $832.04 | $858.88 | +$26.84 | 33% 168-335 (503) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Pelicansavg 31¢ | $417.71 | $431.18 | +$13.47 | 37% 1022-1710 (2732) |
SE sentrioCTR | Pelicansavg 32¢ | $332.95 | $332.95 | -$0 | 42% 991-1360 (2351) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR | Pelicansavg 31¢ | $217 | $224 | +$7 | 35% 162-305 (467) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Pelicansavg 32¢ | $218.34 | $218.24 | -$0.1 | 48% 3205-3505 (6710) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Pelicansavg 32¢ | $12.96 | $12.96 | +$0 | 48% 2067-2229 (4296) |
Invested
$11,371.57
Value
$11.3K
PnL
-$54.34
Record
63%
26-15 (41)
Invested
$1,756.42
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
3811-3974 (7785)
Invested
$832.04
Value
$858.88
PnL
+$26.84
Record
33%
168-335 (503)
Invested
$417.71
Value
$431.18
PnL
+$13.47
Record
37%
1022-1710 (2732)
Invested
$332.95
Value
$332.95
PnL
-$0
Record
42%
991-1360 (2351)
Invested
$217
Value
$224
PnL
+$7
Record
35%
162-305 (467)
Invested
$218.34
Value
$218.24
PnL
-$0.1
Record
48%
3205-3505 (6710)
Invested
$12.96
Value
$12.96
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2067-2229 (4296)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.