Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nuggets, while the market favors Pelicans (57%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (100%) · Nuggets at 43¢ · $779 held · ended Nov 15

Nuggets43¢Pelicans57¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 100%

Total Value

$779.4

Combined PnL

$27.22

Smart Money Entry

41¢ → 42.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Pelicans 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets43%

Pelicans57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets5 traders

Total Value$779.4

Total Shares1,830

Combined PnL+$27.22

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Nuggetsavg 41¢	$586.46	$607.86	+$21.4	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Nuggetsavg 41¢	$150.31	$155.69	+$5.39	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 41¢	$10.25	$10.63	+$0.38	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 44¢	$2.64	$2.61	-$0.03	57% 3579-2662 (6241)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 41¢	$2.52	$2.61	+$0.09	42% 1060-1490 (2550)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$586.46

Value

$607.86

PnL

+$21.4

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

FlaznorpCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$150.31

Value

$155.69

PnL

+$5.39

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$10.25

Value

$10.63

PnL

+$0.38

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.61

PnL

-$0.03

Record

57%

3579-2662 (6241)

sentrioCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$2.52

Value

$2.61

PnL

+$0.09

Record

42%

1060-1490 (2550)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Pelicans 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.