Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pelicans, while the market favors Nuggets (54%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (67%) · Pelicans at 47¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15

Nuggets54¢Pelicans46¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$36.94

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 46.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets54%

Pelicans47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,845

Combined PnL+$25.98

Nuggets3 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,013

Combined PnL+$10.97

Pelicans — 67%Nuggets — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TM TMingchanCTR	Pelicansavg 46¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$23.4	32% 20-42 (62)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Nuggetsavg 53¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$12.94	49% 650-689 (1339)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 52.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$17.71	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 52.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.51
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 46¢	$570.54	$576.74	+$6.2
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Nuggetsavg 54¢	$339.09	$335.95	-$3.14	41% 26-38 (64)
LI LimousinCTR	Pelicansavg 46¢	$234.14	$234.14	+$0	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
VeryLucky888CTR	Pelicansavg 46¢	$253.77	$233.45	+$3.01	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
OM omnibus-076daa	Nuggetsavg 53¢	$124	$125.17	+$1.17	46% 526-624 (1150)
0X 0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 47¢	$37.6	$36.8	-$0.8	48% 11-12 (23)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 46¢	$22.23	$22.47	+$0.24	47% 985-1122 (2107)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 46¢	$11.5	$11.63	+$0.13	49% 1694-1746 (3440)

TMingchanCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$2,153.01

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$23.4

Record

32%

20-42 (62)

Multicoloured-Serf

Nuggets

Invested

$1,934.8

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$12.94

Record

49%

650-689 (1339)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$1,674.26

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$17.71

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

Both legs:

Nuggets$1,103.7252.9¢+$11.51

Pelicans$570.5446¢+$6.2

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Nuggets

Invested

$339.09

Value

$335.95

PnL

-$3.14

Record

41%

26-38 (64)

LimousinCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$234.14

Value

$234.14

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

VeryLucky888CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$253.77

Value

$233.45

PnL

+$3.01

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

omnibus-076daa

Nuggets

Invested

$124

Value

$125.17

PnL

+$1.17

Record

46%

526-624 (1150)

0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$37.6

Value

$36.8

PnL

-$0.8

Record

48%

11-12 (23)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$22.23

Value

$22.47

PnL

+$0.24

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.63

PnL

+$0.13

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.