Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 244.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 72¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
$1.0K
-$0.1
75.1¢ → 72¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 72%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 75¢ | $486.75 | $502.98 | +$16.23 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
F9 0xf93f...f94bCTR | Overavg 24.9¢ | $249.04 | $225 | -$24.04 | — |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 75.3¢ | $174.58 | $179.8 | +$5.22 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 75.3¢ | $85.88 | $88.35 | +$2.47 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 78¢ | $15.44 | $15.35 | -$0.1 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $3.88 | +$0.13 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
Invested
$486.75
Value
$502.98
PnL
+$16.23
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$249.04
Value
$225
PnL
-$24.04
Record
—
Invested
$174.58
Value
$179.8
PnL
+$5.22
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$85.88
Value
$88.35
PnL
+$2.47
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
RN1<$100Invested
$15.44
Value
$15.35
PnL
-$0.1
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.88
PnL
+$0.13
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.