Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (22%) · Under at 56¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 12

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 22%

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

-$49.16

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 55.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares10,171

Combined PnL-$53.45

Over7 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares10,148

Combined PnL+$4.29

Under — 22%Over — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luckycat888888	Underavg 56¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	-$45.25	16% 18-98 (116)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 44¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$0	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 44¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$0	53% 290-259 (549)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 44.6¢	$188.81	$186.47	-$2.33	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 40.3¢	$89.07	$97.3	+$8.23	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
RN1	Underavg 60.3¢	$103.11	$94.91	-$8.2	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$55.8	$54.56	-$1.24	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 44.5¢	$44.5	$44	-$0.5	49% 693-734 (1427)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$3.18	$3.31	+$0.13	55% 683-554 (1237)

luckycat888888

Under

Invested

$5,595.25

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$45.25

Record

16%

18-98 (116)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$2,453.24

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$1,627.56

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$188.81

Value

$186.47

PnL

-$2.33

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$89.07

Value

$97.3

PnL

+$8.23

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

RN1

Under

Invested

$103.11

Value

$94.91

PnL

-$8.2

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$55.8

Value

$54.56

PnL

-$1.24

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$44.5

Value

$44

PnL

-$0.5

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.18

Value

$3.31

PnL

+$0.13

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.