Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (14%) · Over at 51¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 14%
1 arb excluded
$9.7K
$99.12
Research grade
AvoidOver at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AP AppleTiiime | Overavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$50.08 | 53% 83-74 (157) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $2.9K | $2.8K | -$26.89 | 57% 3109-2336 (5445) |
HI hi774cCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$69.7 | 10% 48-436 (484) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $141.41 | $144.43 | +$3.02 | 48% 1056-1134 (2190) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50¢ | $100.93 | $99.99 | -$0.94 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 46¢ | $40.48 | $44.44 | +$3.96 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $88.5 | $92.93 | +$4.42 | 50% 1640-1620 (3260) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $49.67 | $38.85 | +$1.68 | 48% 512-544 (1056) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $20.2 | $20.4 | +$0.2 | 35% 280-514 (794) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 50.5¢ | $12.38 | $12.3 | -$0.08 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
Invested
$4,999.92
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$50.08
Record
53%
83-74 (157)
Invested
$2,863.83
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$26.89
Record
57%
3109-2336 (5445)
Invested
$1,394
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$69.7
Record
10%
48-436 (484)
Invested
$141.41
Value
$144.43
PnL
+$3.02
Record
48%
1056-1134 (2190)
Both legs:
Invested
$88.5
Value
$92.93
PnL
+$4.42
Record
50%
1640-1620 (3260)
Invested
$49.67
Value
$38.85
PnL
+$1.68
Record
48%
512-544 (1056)
Invested
$20.2
Value
$20.4
PnL
+$0.2
Record
35%
280-514 (794)
Invested
$12.38
Value
$12.3
PnL
-$0.08
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.