Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 46¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$6.7K
$134.31
43.1¢ → 45.5¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $3.9K | $4.0K | +$91.49 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 44¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$76.88 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$14.61 | |
LI LimousinCTR | Underavg 43¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$118.77 | 30% 383-882 (1265) |
NM NM-P | Overavg 54¢ | $270 | $272.5 | +$2.5 | 59% 3477-2368 (5845) |
GC GC-P | Overavg 54¢ | $270 | $272.5 | +$2.5 | 20% 98-382 (480) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 43¢ | $129.92 | $138.98 | +$9.06 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Underavg 45¢ | $106.11 | $107.29 | +$1.18 | 30% 384-878 (1262) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $10.97 | $11.21 | +$0.24 | 55% 641-522 (1163) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $3.24 | $3.27 | +$0.03 | 38% 355-588 (943) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $2.73 | +$0.02 | 33% 307-625 (932) |
Invested
$3,943.19
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$91.49
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,702.41
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$118.77
Record
30%
383-882 (1265)
Invested
$270
Value
$272.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
59%
3477-2368 (5845)
Invested
$270
Value
$272.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
20%
98-382 (480)
Invested
$129.92
Value
$138.98
PnL
+$9.06
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
Invested
$106.11
Value
$107.29
PnL
+$1.18
Record
30%
384-878 (1262)
Invested
$10.97
Value
$11.21
PnL
+$0.24
Record
55%
641-522 (1163)
Invested
$3.24
Value
$3.27
PnL
+$0.03
Record
38%
355-588 (943)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.73
PnL
+$0.02
Record
33%
307-625 (932)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.