Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (56%) · Nuggets at 51¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 12

Nuggets51¢Grizzlies49¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 56%

Total Value

$22.9K

Combined PnL

$2.5K

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 50.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets51%

Grizzlies50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets5 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares20,353

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Grizzlies4 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares20,262

Combined PnL+$316.62

Nuggets — 56%Grizzlies — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGrizzlies 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNuggets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nuggets 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Nuggetsavg 52¢	$10.1K	$12.2K	+$2.1K	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
AP AppleTiiimeCTR	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$4.8K	$5.0K	+$152.3	52% 86-78 (164)
AC AckbarCTR	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$4.8K	$5.0K	+$150.06	— 7-6 (13)
65 6512395314597884	Nuggetsavg 50.7¢	$260.85	$321.61	+$60.76	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
RN1	Nuggetsavg 53¢	$128.42	$152.02	+$23.6	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Nuggetsavg 59¢	$95.52	$102	+$6.48	55% 719-584 (1303)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 41¢	$66.38	$80.14	+$13.76	31% 412-897 (1309)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 46¢	$46	$46.5	+$0.5	53% 290-259 (549)
PA Pan9X<$100	Nuggetsavg 53¢	$15.9	$18.9	+$3	49% 693-734 (1427)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Nuggets

Invested

$10,095.48

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

AppleTiiimeCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$4,797.7

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$152.3

Record

52%

86-78 (164)

AckbarCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$4,799.94

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$150.06

Record

—

7-6 (13)

6512395314597884

Nuggets

Invested

$260.85

Value

$321.61

PnL

+$60.76

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

RN1

Nuggets

Invested

$128.42

Value

$152.02

PnL

+$23.6

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Nuggets

Invested

$95.52

Value

$102

PnL

+$6.48

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$66.38

Value

$80.14

PnL

+$13.76

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$46

Value

$46.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

Pan9X<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$15.9

Value

$18.9

PnL

+$3

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGrizzlies 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNuggets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nuggets 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.