Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Nuggets, while the market favors Grizzlies (57%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (100%) · Nuggets at 43¢ · $609 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Nuggets
7
Nuggets 100%
$609.12
-$7.13
42.8¢ → 42.5¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNuggets at 43%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 57%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Nuggetsavg 43¢ | $221.45 | $197.28 | -$1.84 | 52% 497-452 (949) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Nuggetsavg 43¢ | $184.9 | $180.6 | -$4.3 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Nuggetsavg 42¢ | $109.67 | $110.97 | +$1.31 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 43¢ | $74.4 | $72.67 | -$1.73 | 47% 299-342 (641) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 43¢ | $44.27 | $43.76 | -$0.51 | 39% 394-619 (1013) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.13 | -$0.02 | 34% 327-634 (961) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 43¢ | $1.74 | $1.72 | -$0.02 | 59% 3478-2370 (5848) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$221.45
Value
$197.28
PnL
-$1.84
Record
52%
497-452 (949)
Invested
$184.9
Value
$180.6
PnL
-$4.3
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Invested
$109.67
Value
$110.97
PnL
+$1.31
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
Invested
$74.4
Value
$72.67
PnL
-$1.73
Record
47%
299-342 (641)
Invested
$44.27
Value
$43.76
PnL
-$0.51
Record
39%
394-619 (1013)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.13
PnL
-$0.02
Record
34%
327-634 (961)
Invested
$1.74
Value
$1.72
PnL
-$0.02
Record
59%
3478-2370 (5848)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.