Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (67%) · Grizzlies at 65¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Nuggets36¢Grizzlies64¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$227.37

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 64.5¢

+35% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets36%

Grizzlies65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies4 traders

Total Value$610.43

Total Shares967

Combined PnL+$139.81

Nuggets2 traders

Total Value$239.72

Total Shares410

Combined PnL+$87.56

Grizzlies — 67%Nuggets — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nuggets) and the top 1000 (5 on Grizzlies) disagree here.

ctrGrizzlies 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNuggets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 52.3¢	$445.08	$407.66	-$37.43	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 52.3¢	$292.8	$319.2	+$26.4
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 74¢	$152.28	$88.46	-$63.83
BI biying88888	Grizzliesavg 47.8¢	$286.8	$378	+$91.2	37% 121-203 (324)
RN1CTR	Nuggetsavg 26¢	$65	$142.5	+$77.5	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Grizzliesavg 49.4¢	$104.44	$135.23	+$30.79	53% 290-259 (549)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 48¢	$87.16	$97.22	+$10.06	55% 719-584 (1303)
MA MadridTime<$100	Grizzliesavg 44¢	$66.38	$95.04	+$28.66	31% 412-897 (1309)
PA Pan9X<$100	Grizzliesavg 74¢	$26.64	$2.15	-$10.85	49% 693-734 (1427)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$445.08

Value

$407.66

PnL

-$37.43

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Both legs:

Nuggets$292.852.3¢+$26.4

Grizzlies$152.2874¢-$63.83

biying88888

Grizzlies

Invested

$286.8

Value

$378

PnL

+$91.2

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

RN1CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$65

Value

$142.5

PnL

+$77.5

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Grizzlies

Invested

$104.44

Value

$135.23

PnL

+$30.79

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$87.16

Value

$97.22

PnL

+$10.06

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

MadridTime<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$66.38

Value

$95.04

PnL

+$28.66

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

Pan9X<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$26.64

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$10.85

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nuggets) and the top 1000 (5 on Grizzlies) disagree here.

ctrGrizzlies 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNuggets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.