Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 232.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 75%
$1.5K
$146.99
74¢ → 95.3¢
+29% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 95%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 68.9¢ | $487.19 | $513.61 | +$109.25 | 52% 287-270 (557) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 73.4¢ | $609.18 | $375.27 | +$33.03 | 49% 427-449 (876) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 81.5¢ | $200.01 | $243.22 | +$43.21 | 53% 330-294 (624) |
65 6512395314597884 | Underavg 79¢ | $158 | $198.2 | +$16 | 43% 131-176 (307) |
 nigiri99CTR | Overavg 26.5¢ | $182.7 | $127.47 | -$55.23 | 41% 29-42 (71) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 78¢ | $27.5 | $34.95 | +$6.7 | 57% 139-106 (245) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 74¢ | $25.95 | $24.3 | -$1.65 | 49% 193-198 (391) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $50.68 | $10.39 | -$4.31 | 22% 84-295 (379) |
RN1Invested
$487.19
Value
$513.61
PnL
+$109.25
Record
52%
287-270 (557)
Invested
$609.18
Value
$375.27
PnL
+$33.03
Record
49%
427-449 (876)
Invested
$200.01
Value
$243.22
PnL
+$43.21
Record
53%
330-294 (624)
Invested
$158
Value
$198.2
PnL
+$16
Record
43%
131-176 (307)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$182.7
Value
$127.47
PnL
-$55.23
Record
41%
29-42 (71)
Invested
$27.5
Value
$34.95
PnL
+$6.7
Record
57%
139-106 (245)
Invested
$25.95
Value
$24.3
PnL
-$1.65
Record
49%
193-198 (391)
Invested
$50.68
Value
$10.39
PnL
-$4.31
Record
22%
84-295 (379)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.