Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 50¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 10

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

Total Value

$24.8K

Combined PnL

-$123.99

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 49.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$13.7K

Total Shares27,635

Combined PnL-$182.87

Over5 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares21,666

Combined PnL+$58.88

Under — 62%Over — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 49.2¢	$12.6K	$12.6K	-$186.13	30% 29-67 (96)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Overavg 50.1¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	+$47.95	0% 0-42 (42)
nigiri99	Overavg 51.4¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$7.31	42% 28-38 (66)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 49¢	$478.38	$483.26	+$4.88	25% 88-264 (352)
QI qinlaobanCTR	Underavg 49¢	$379.53	$383.4	+$3.87	1% 1-68 (69)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 50¢	$400	$194	-$6	5% 22-415 (437)
GC GC-P	Overavg 51¢	$178.5	$180.25	+$1.75	5% 11-190 (201)
NM NM-P	Overavg 51¢	$178.5	$180.25	+$1.75	6% 11-164 (175)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$29.76	$30.07	+$0.31	6% 2-34 (36)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$19.2	$19.4	+$0.2	67% 29-14 (43)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 51¢	$12.43	$12.55	+$0.12	53% 87-77 (164)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.48	+$0.02	54% 235-203 (438)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.43	-$0.03	19% 44-191 (235)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$12,550.39

Value

$12.6K

PnL

-$186.13

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

JoeyAroyyOO

Over

Invested

$5,785.13

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$47.95

Record

0-42 (42)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$4,829.06

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$7.31

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$478.38

Value

$483.26

PnL

+$4.88

Record

25%

88-264 (352)

qinlaobanCTR

Under

Invested

$379.53

Value

$383.4

PnL

+$3.87

Record

1-68 (69)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$400

Value

$194

PnL

-$6

Record

22-415 (437)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$178.5

Value

$180.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

11-190 (201)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$178.5

Value

$180.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

11-164 (175)

biying99999CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.76

Value

$30.07

PnL

+$0.31

Record

2-34 (36)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.2

Value

$19.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

67%

29-14 (43)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$12.43

Value

$12.55

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

87-77 (164)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

235-203 (438)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.03

Record

19%

44-191 (235)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.