Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (64%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 216.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 36¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 75%
$1.7K
-$31.73
46.5¢ → 36¢
-23% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 36%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 64%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Overavg 54¢ | $787.92 | $844.2 | +$56.28 | — |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $347.62 | $315.79 | -$31.83 | — |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Underavg 47¢ | $304.7 | $273.89 | -$30.81 | — |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 46.5¢ | $232.5 | $212.5 | -$20 | — |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $37.44 | $34 | -$3.44 | — |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $25 | $9.88 | -$1.63 | — |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 46.5¢ | $4.4 | $3.95 | -$0.45 | — |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $3.2 | +$0.15 | — |
Invested
$787.92
Value
$844.2
PnL
+$56.28
Record
—
Invested
$347.62
Value
$315.79
PnL
-$31.83
Record
—
Invested
$304.7
Value
$273.89
PnL
-$30.81
Record
—
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$232.5
Value
$212.5
PnL
-$20
Record
—
Invested
$37.44
Value
$34
PnL
-$3.44
Record
—
Invested
$25
Value
$9.88
PnL
-$1.63
Record
—
Invested
$4.4
Value
$3.95
PnL
-$0.45
Record
—
Invested
$3.05
Value
$3.2
PnL
+$0.15
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.