Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rockets, while the market favors Nuggets (61%). 21 of 25 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Rockets (-7.5)

21 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (84%) · Rockets at 39¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 10

Rockets39¢Nuggets61¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 84%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 39¢

-25% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

21 of 25 top traders (84%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets39%

Nuggets61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets4 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares18,743

Combined PnL+$343.25

Rockets21 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares21,703

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Nuggets — 16%Rockets — 84%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

84% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 83% · 24

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AP AppleTiiime	Nuggetsavg 58.9¢	$9.6K	$9.8K	+$257.62	—
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Rocketsavg 52¢	$2.4K	$1.8K	-$582.69	—
GA GaditimaCTR	Rocketsavg 51.5¢	$2.1K	$1.6K	-$480	—
HI hi774cCTR	Rocketsavg 54¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	-$519.85	—
nigiri99	Nuggetsavg 57.8¢	$940.58	$984.33	+$43.75	—
NM NM-PCTR	Rocketsavg 53.1¢	$929.25	$691.25	-$238	—
RN1CTR	Rocketsavg 43.9¢	$743.56	$668.74	-$74.82	—
VeryLucky888CTR	Rocketsavg 53¢	$1.0K	$622.75	-$190.75	—
GC GC-PCTR	Rocketsavg 52.9¢	$740.25	$553	-$187.25	—
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Rocketsavg 52¢	$626.26	$497.66	-$128.6	—
PU purplegatto	Nuggetsavg 54.9¢	$403.29	$444.37	+$41.08	—
38 38791873984189CTR	Rocketsavg 53.5¢	$362.97	$288.51	-$74.46	—
FO forecastication4CTR	Rocketsavg 53¢	$240.62	$179.33	-$61.29	—
65 6512395314597884CTR	Rocketsavg 50¢	$195	$154.05	-$40.95	—
AU auros2ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 51¢	$143	$123.22	-$19.78	—
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 51¢	$112.7	$87.28	-$25.42
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 51¢	$30.3	$35.94	+$5.64
FL Flaznorp<$100	Nuggetsavg 44¢	$92.36	$93.16	+$0.8	—
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 44¢	$80.82	$85.14	-$10.39	—
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 44¢	$40.43	$55.59	+$0.46
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 54¢	$40.4	$29.55	-$10.85
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 49.5¢	$99	$79	-$20	—
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 51¢	$50.49	$39.11	-$11.38	—
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 52.2¢	$45.01	$34.37	-$10.64	—
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 53¢	$29.68	$22.12	-$7.56	—
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 46¢	$23	$19.75	-$3.25	—
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 51¢	$20	$15.49	-$4.31	—
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 52.7¢	$15.8	$11.85	-$3.95	—
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 50¢	$5	$3.95	-$1.05	—

AppleTiiime

Nuggets

Invested

$9,557.03

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$257.62

Record

—

HomeRunHazardCTR

Rockets

Invested

$2,424

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$582.69

Record

—

GaditimaCTR

Rockets

Invested

$2,060

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$480

Record

—

hi774cCTR

Rockets

Invested

$1,936

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$519.85

Record

—

nigiri99

Nuggets

Invested

$940.58

Value

$984.33

PnL

+$43.75

Record

—

NM-PCTR

Rockets

Invested

$929.25

Value

$691.25

PnL

-$238

Record

—

RN1CTR

Rockets

Invested

$743.56

Value

$668.74

PnL

-$74.82

Record

—

VeryLucky888CTR

Rockets

Invested

$1,038.5

Value

$622.75

PnL

-$190.75

Record

—

GC-PCTR

Rockets

Invested

$740.25

Value

$553

PnL

-$187.25

Record

—

SunlineTickerCTR

Rockets

Invested

$626.26

Value

$497.66

PnL

-$128.6

Record

—

purplegatto

Nuggets

Invested

$403.29

Value

$444.37

PnL

+$41.08

Record

—

38791873984189CTR

Rockets

Invested

$362.97

Value

$288.51

PnL

-$74.46

Record

—

forecastication4CTR

Rockets

Invested

$240.62

Value

$179.33

PnL

-$61.29

Record

—

6512395314597884CTR

Rockets

Invested

$195

Value

$154.05

PnL

-$40.95

Record

—

auros2ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$143

Value

$123.22

PnL

-$19.78

Record

—

Both legs:

Rockets$112.751¢-$25.42

Nuggets$30.351¢+$5.64

Flaznorp<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$92.36

Value

$93.16

PnL

+$0.8

Record

—

SnakeBallARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$80.82

Value

$85.14

PnL

-$10.39

Record

—

Both legs:

Nuggets$40.4344¢+$0.46

Rockets$40.454¢-$10.85

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$99

Value

$79

PnL

-$20

Record

—

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$50.49

Value

$39.11

PnL

-$11.38

Record

—

Pan9XCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$45.01

Value

$34.37

PnL

-$10.64

Record

—

biying99999CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$29.68

Value

$22.12

PnL

-$7.56

Record

—

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$23

Value

$19.75

PnL

-$3.25

Record

—

NotradecopyCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$20

Value

$15.49

PnL

-$4.31

Record

—

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$15.8

Value

$11.85

PnL

-$3.95

Record

—

RLWGCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$1.05

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

21 of 25 top traders (84%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

84% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 83% · 24

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.2%

39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$142.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

242.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.