Spread: Rockets (-6.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (43%) · Rockets at 59¢ · $360 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Rockets
7
Rockets 43%
$359.7
-$15.09
58¢ → 58.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidRockets at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Rocketsavg 58¢ | $145 | $146.25 | +$1.25 | — |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Nuggetsavg 42¢ | $111.56 | $110.27 | -$1.3 | 45% 2764-3372 (6136) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 52.3¢ | $84.99 | $69.63 | -$15.36 | 48% 72263-78012 (150275) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 41¢ | $24.28 | $24.58 | +$0.3 | — |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 41¢ | $4.1 | $4.15 | +$0.05 | — |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Rocketsavg 58¢ | $5 | $2.88 | -$0.03 | 53% 14841-13046 (27887) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Rocketsavg 58¢ | $2.85 | $1.95 | -$0 | 54% 20342-17178 (37520) |
RN1Invested
$145
Value
$146.25
PnL
+$1.25
Record
—
Invested
$111.56
Value
$110.27
PnL
-$1.3
Record
45%
2764-3372 (6136)
Invested
$84.99
Value
$69.63
PnL
-$15.36
Record
48%
72263-78012 (150275)
Invested
$24.28
Value
$24.58
PnL
+$0.3
Record
—
Invested
$4.1
Value
$4.15
PnL
+$0.05
Record
—
Invested
$5
Value
$2.88
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
14841-13046 (27887)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$1.95
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
20342-17178 (37520)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.