Spread: Rockets (-4.5)

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (38%) · Nuggets at 52¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 10

Rockets49¢Nuggets51¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

36.9¢ → 51.5¢

+40% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

6 of 16 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets49%

Nuggets52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets6 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares13,554

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Rockets10 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,398

Combined PnL-$229.38

Nuggets — 38%Rockets — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Rockets 67% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Nuggetsavg 43.9¢	$2.9K	$3.4K	+$506.62	—
RollAwayTheDew	Nuggetsavg 27¢	$1.6K	$3.0K	+$1.4K	—
65 6512395314597884CTR	Rocketsavg 55.5¢	$750.14	$655.79	-$94.35	—
nigiri99CTR	Rocketsavg 54.6¢	$618.56	$549.02	-$69.54	—
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 57.1¢	$835.54	$328.35	-$62.1	—
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 46.7¢	$152.73	$168.41	+$15.68
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 57.1¢	$188.47	$159.94	-$77.78
HO HomeRunHazard	Nuggetsavg 51¢	$303.71	$306.69	+$2.98	—
FL FlaznorpCTR	Rocketsavg 49¢	$170.15	$177.79	+$7.09	—
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Nuggetsavg 51¢	$158.26	$159.81	+$1.55	—
AU auros2CTR	Rocketsavg 59¢	$112.73	$92.66	-$20.06	—
PA Pan9XCTR	Rocketsavg 58.2¢	$193.72	$66.29	-$27.18	—
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 57¢	$57	$48.5	-$8.5	—
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 56¢	$42.02	$38.27	-$3.75	—
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 64¢	$46.02	$34.87	-$11.15	—
balthazarCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 54¢	$10.8	$9.7	-$0.9	—
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 59¢	$5.9	$4.85	-$1.05	—
HI hi774c<$100	Nuggetsavg 53¢	$3.33	$2.45	-$0.88	—
LI LightParadox<$100	Nuggetsavg 35¢	$2.43	$2.45	+$0.03	—

SunlineTicker

Nuggets

Invested

$2,915.93

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$506.62

Record

—

RollAwayTheDew

Nuggets

Invested

$1,617.84

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

—

6512395314597884CTR

Rockets

Invested

$750.14

Value

$655.79

PnL

-$94.35

Record

—

nigiri99CTR

Rockets

Invested

$618.56

Value

$549.02

PnL

-$69.54

Record

—

38791873984189ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$835.54

Value

$328.35

PnL

-$62.1

Record

—

Both legs:

Nuggets$152.7346.7¢+$15.68

Rockets$188.4757.1¢-$77.78

HomeRunHazard

Nuggets

Invested

$303.71

Value

$306.69

PnL

+$2.98

Record

—

FlaznorpCTR

Rockets

Invested

$170.15

Value

$177.79

PnL

+$7.09

Record

—

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Nuggets

Invested

$158.26

Value

$159.81

PnL

+$1.55

Record

—

auros2CTR

Rockets

Invested

$112.73

Value

$92.66

PnL

-$20.06

Record

—

Pan9XCTR

Rockets

Invested

$193.72

Value

$66.29

PnL

-$27.18

Record

—

GaditimaCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$57

Value

$48.5

PnL

-$8.5

Record

—

e46m3CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$42.02

Value

$38.27

PnL

-$3.75

Record

—

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$46.02

Value

$34.87

PnL

-$11.15

Record

—

balthazarCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$10.8

Value

$9.7

PnL

-$0.9

Record

—

RLWGCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$5.9

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$1.05

Record

—

hi774c<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$3.33

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.88

Record

—

LightParadox<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$2.43

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.03

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

6 of 16 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Rockets 67% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.