Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nuggets, while the market favors Rockets (54%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Rockets (-3.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (71%) · Nuggets at 47¢ · $856 held · ends Nov 10

Rockets54¢Nuggets46¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$856.19

Combined PnL

$22.14

Smart Money Entry

44.8¢ → 46.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets54%

Nuggets47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets5 traders

Total Value$521.91

Total Shares1,119

Combined PnL+$20.64

Rockets2 traders

Total Value$106.47

Total Shares199

Combined PnL+$1.5

Nuggets — 71%Rockets — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Nuggets 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 52.4¢	$292.22	$227.81	-$5.58	—
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 52.4¢	$177.03	$180.85	+$4.52
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 56.5¢	$57.07	$46.97	-$10.1
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Nuggetsavg 47¢	$227.01	$224.6	-$2.41	—
nigiri99CTR	Nuggetsavg 45.3¢	$213.58	$219.02	+$5.44	—
MO monkeymashingkeyboard<$100	Rocketsavg 53¢	$72.08	$72.76	+$0.68	—
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 38¢	$29.29	$36.61	+$7.32	—
PA Pan9X<$100	Rocketsavg 52.3¢	$39.25	$33.71	+$0.82	—
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 38¢	$16.82	$21.02	+$4.2	—
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 33.5¢	$14.58	$20.67	+$6.1	—

38791873984189ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$292.22

Value

$227.81

PnL

-$5.58

Record

—

Both legs:

Rockets$177.0352.4¢+$4.52

Nuggets$57.0756.5¢-$10.1

HomeRunHazardCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$227.01

Value

$224.6

PnL

-$2.41

Record

—

nigiri99CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$213.58

Value

$219.02

PnL

+$5.44

Record

—

monkeymashingkeyboard<$100

Rockets

Invested

$72.08

Value

$72.76

PnL

+$0.68

Record

—

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$29.29

Value

$36.61

PnL

+$7.32

Record

—

Pan9X<$100

Rockets

Invested

$39.25

Value

$33.71

PnL

+$0.82

Record

—

cigarettesCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$16.82

Value

$21.02

PnL

+$4.2

Record

—

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$14.58

Value

$20.67

PnL

+$6.1

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Nuggets 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.