Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Nuggets, while the market favors Rockets (57%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Rockets (-2.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (71%) · Nuggets at 43¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Nuggets
7
Nuggets 71%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$28.09
38.7¢ → 42.5¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNuggets at 43%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Rocketsavg 56.9¢ | $858.42 | $741.57 | -$9.35 | 30% 29-67 (96) |
| └ Rockets leg | Rocketsavg 56.9¢ | $421.94 | $426.22 | +$4.28 | |
| └ Nuggets leg | Nuggetsavg 44¢ | $326.48 | $315.35 | -$13.63 | |
 nigiri99CTR | Nuggetsavg 37¢ | $185.62 | $218.37 | +$32.75 | 42% 28-38 (66) |
38 38791873984189 | Rocketsavg 68.1¢ | $442.36 | $151.33 | -$61.39 | 49% 388-405 (793) |
 RN1CTR | Nuggetsavg 43¢ | $107.5 | $106.25 | -$1.25 | 54% 235-203 (438) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Rocketsavg 64.5¢ | $68.42 | $14.7 | -$1.39 | 48% 174-190 (364) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 32¢ | $4.8 | $6.53 | +$1.73 | 24% 90-284 (374) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 29¢ | $2.9 | $4.35 | +$1.45 | 24% 84-270 (354) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 42¢ | $1.45 | $1.47 | +$0.02 | 52% 242-227 (469) |
Invested
$858.42
Value
$741.57
PnL
-$9.35
Record
30%
29-67 (96)
Both legs:
nigiri99CTRInvested
$185.62
Value
$218.37
PnL
+$32.75
Record
42%
28-38 (66)
Invested
$442.36
Value
$151.33
PnL
-$61.39
Record
49%
388-405 (793)
RN1CTRInvested
$107.5
Value
$106.25
PnL
-$1.25
Record
54%
235-203 (438)
Invested
$68.42
Value
$14.7
PnL
-$1.39
Record
48%
174-190 (364)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$6.53
PnL
+$1.73
Record
24%
90-284 (374)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$4.35
PnL
+$1.45
Record
24%
84-270 (354)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$1.47
PnL
+$0.02
Record
52%
242-227 (469)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.