Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 57¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Over57¢Under43¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$4.45

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 57.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$679.39

Total Shares1,034

Combined PnL+$6.52

Under4 traders

Total Value$146.53

Total Shares320

Combined PnL-$2.06

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 53.1¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$20.36	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.1¢	$749.24	$811.85	+$62.61
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$693.07	$613.65	-$82.97
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 57¢	$317.01	$319.79	+$2.78	47% 350-393 (743)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Overavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	100% 71-0 (71)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47¢	$119.46	$118.23	-$1.23	52% 597-541 (1138)
HI hi774c	Overavg 56¢	$109.4	$112.33	+$2.93	15% 85-486 (571)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 56.4¢	$24.54	$25	+$0.46	55% 729-596 (1325)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 56.6¢	$21.93	$22.27	+$0.34	40% 438-657 (1095)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 44.7¢	$17.62	$16.75	-$0.87	55% 218-176 (394)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$9.11	$9.22	+$0.11	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.33	-$0.07	35% 376-688 (1064)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,807.45

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$20.36

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

Both legs:

Over$749.2453.1¢+$62.61

Under$693.0748¢-$82.97

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$317.01

Value

$319.79

PnL

+$2.78

Record

47%

350-393 (743)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

100%

71-0 (71)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$119.46

Value

$118.23

PnL

-$1.23

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$109.4

Value

$112.33

PnL

+$2.93

Record

15%

85-486 (571)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$24.54

Value

$25

PnL

+$0.46

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$21.93

Value

$22.27

PnL

+$0.34

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.62

Value

$16.75

PnL

-$0.87

Record

55%

218-176 (394)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.11

Value

$9.22

PnL

+$0.11

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.07

Record

35%

376-688 (1064)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.