Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Timberwolves, while the market favors Mavericks (60%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (100%) · Timberwolves at 41¢ · $715 held · ends Nov 13

Timberwolves41¢Mavericks59¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 100%

Total Value

$714.91

Combined PnL

$20.29

Smart Money Entry

39.3¢ → 40.5¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 60%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves41%

Mavericks60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves8 traders

Total Value$714.91

Total Shares1,768

Combined PnL+$20.29

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTimberwolves 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Timberwolves 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Timberwolvesavg 40¢	$236.97	$240.02	+$3.05	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
38 38791873984189CTR	Timberwolvesavg 38.4¢	$173.14	$174.25	+$9.62	48% 2306-2514 (4820)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Timberwolvesavg 40¢	$158	$159.98	+$1.98	51% 2643-2567 (5210)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 37¢	$44.77	$48.4	+$3.63	27% 104-276 (380)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 40¢	$39.92	$40.42	+$0.5	46% 485-564 (1049)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 38.3¢	$29.13	$30.4	+$1.27	49% 1093-1146 (2239)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 40¢	$19.2	$19.44	+$0.24	59% 3556-2429 (5985)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 40¢	$2	$2	-$0	33% 587-1187 (1774)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$236.97

Value

$240.02

PnL

+$3.05

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

38791873984189CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$173.14

Value

$174.25

PnL

+$9.62

Record

48%

2306-2514 (4820)

FlaznorpCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$158

Value

$159.98

PnL

+$1.98

Record

51%

2643-2567 (5210)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$44.77

Value

$48.4

PnL

+$3.63

Record

27%

104-276 (380)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$39.92

Value

$40.42

PnL

+$0.5

Record

46%

485-564 (1049)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$29.13

Value

$30.4

PnL

+$1.27

Record

49%

1093-1146 (2239)

NM-PCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$19.2

Value

$19.44

PnL

+$0.24

Record

59%

3556-2429 (5985)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

33%

587-1187 (1774)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 60%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTimberwolves 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Timberwolves 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.