Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 114.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (70%) · Over at 92¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Over92¢Under8¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 70%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$60.19

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 91.5¢

+45% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over92%

Under9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,758

Combined PnL+$146.53

Under3 traders

Total Value$546.99

Total Shares1,572

Combined PnL-$86.34

Over — 70%Under — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 60.3¢	$824.65	$848.1	+$23.45	54% 1122-947 (2069)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Underavg 40¢	$398	$437.8	+$39.8	44% 93-116 (209)
US User7429	Overavg 72.7¢	$273.75	$333.18	+$59.43	35% 220-410 (630)
dips.	Overavg 73¢	$282.89	$302.27	+$19.38	46% 622-743 (1365)
TA takeormake	Overavg 56¢	$211.68	$234.36	+$22.68	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 43.6¢	$208.32	$88.43	-$119.89	34% 362-700 (1062)
RN1<$100	Overavg 57¢	$64.44	$70.09	+$5.65	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 58¢	$58	$62	+$4	53% 6404-5641 (12045)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 58.9¢	$22.5	$34.44	+$11.94	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 25.6¢	$27.01	$20.76	-$6.25	44% 496-624 (1120)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$824.65

Value

$848.1

PnL

+$23.45

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Under

Invested

$398

Value

$437.8

PnL

+$39.8

Record

44%

93-116 (209)

User7429

Over

Invested

$273.75

Value

$333.18

PnL

+$59.43

Record

35%

220-410 (630)

dips.

Over

Invested

$282.89

Value

$302.27

PnL

+$19.38

Record

46%

622-743 (1365)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$211.68

Value

$234.36

PnL

+$22.68

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$208.32

Value

$88.43

PnL

-$119.89

Record

34%

362-700 (1062)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$64.44

Value

$70.09

PnL

+$5.65

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$58

Value

$62

PnL

+$4

Record

53%

6404-5641 (12045)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$22.5

Value

$34.44

PnL

+$11.94

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.01

Value

$20.76

PnL

-$6.25

Record

44%

496-624 (1120)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.