Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 51¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$158.29

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 50.5¢

-10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,147

Combined PnL+$177.91

Over7 traders

Total Value$231.19

Total Shares574

Combined PnL-$19.62

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	Underavg 55.1¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$144.1	49% 300-314 (614)
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 58.4¢	$529.22	$561.56	+$32.34	70% 1725-752 (2477)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 44¢	$112.64	$94.72	-$17.92	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Underavg 56¢	$43.02	$47.63	+$4.61	18% 59-270 (329)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$47.39	$46.14	-$1.25	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$44.58	$40.16	+$0.17	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
AN Anon455<$100	Underavg 59.4¢	$38.05	$34.91	-$3.14	49% 429-439 (868)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$32.14	$33.93	+$1.79	47% 985-1122 (2107)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 43.6¢	$11.59	$9.44	-$2.15	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$4.59	$4.43	-$0.16	57% 3579-2662 (6241)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.48	$2.37	-$0.11	55% 1703-1404 (3107)

Gaditima

Under

Invested

$1,157.9

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$144.1

Record

49%

300-314 (614)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$529.22

Value

$561.56

PnL

+$32.34

Record

70%

1725-752 (2477)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$112.64

Value

$94.72

PnL

-$17.92

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Under

Invested

$43.02

Value

$47.63

PnL

+$4.61

Record

18%

59-270 (329)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.39

Value

$46.14

PnL

-$1.25

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$44.58

Value

$40.16

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

Anon455<$100

Under

Invested

$38.05

Value

$34.91

PnL

-$3.14

Record

49%

429-439 (868)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.14

Value

$33.93

PnL

+$1.79

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.59

Value

$9.44

PnL

-$2.15

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.59

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$0.16

Record

57%

3579-2662 (6241)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.48

Value

$2.37

PnL

-$0.11

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.