Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 49¢ · $373 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
9
Under 67%
$372.51
$9.82
45.7¢ → 48.5¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LimousinCTR | Underavg 47¢ | $139.59 | $144.05 | +$4.45 | 36% 950-1657 (2607) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $98.36 | $99.41 | +$1.05 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 45.8¢ | $51.91 | $55.03 | +$3.12 | 49% 3867-4029 (7896) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $35.05 | $35.92 | +$0.88 | 48% 3231-3545 (6776) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 52.8¢ | $13.2 | $13.13 | -$0.07 | 54% 503-421 (924) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $10 | $10.25 | +$0.25 | 50% 1593-1619 (3212) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $6.52 | $6.45 | -$0.06 | 53% 1809-1607 (3416) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $5.46 | $5.33 | -$0.13 | 45% 261-317 (578) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.95 | +$0.35 | 35% 162-305 (467) |
Invested
$139.59
Value
$144.05
PnL
+$4.45
Record
36%
950-1657 (2607)
Invested
$98.36
Value
$99.41
PnL
+$1.05
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$51.91
Value
$55.03
PnL
+$3.12
Record
49%
3867-4029 (7896)
Invested
$35.05
Value
$35.92
PnL
+$0.88
Record
48%
3231-3545 (6776)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$13.2
Value
$13.13
PnL
-$0.07
Record
54%
503-421 (924)
Invested
$10
Value
$10.25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
50%
1593-1619 (3212)
Invested
$6.52
Value
$6.45
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
1809-1607 (3416)
Invested
$5.46
Value
$5.33
PnL
-$0.13
Record
45%
261-317 (578)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.95
PnL
+$0.35
Record
35%
162-305 (467)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.