Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Cavaliers (63%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (50%) · Mavericks at 38¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Cavaliers63¢Mavericks37¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 50%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$5.62

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 37.5¢

-50% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Cavaliers 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers63%

Mavericks38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks5 traders

Total Value$537.61

Total Shares1,264

Combined PnL-$403.14

Cavaliers5 traders

Total Value$758.04

Total Shares1,295

Combined PnL+$408.76

Mavericks — 50%Cavaliers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+33 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	Mavericksavg 85¢	$719.1	$380.7	-$338.4	62% 104-64 (168)
FL Flaznorp	Cavaliersavg 32.1¢	$161.53	$314.64	+$153.11	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
38 38791873984189	Cavaliersavg 15.7¢	$75.48	$250.86	+$175.38	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Cavaliersavg 54.2¢	$86.47	$99.66	+$13.19	46% 558-656 (1214)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 45¢	$67.5	$56.25	-$11.25	49% 572-596 (1168)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Cavaliersavg 15¢	$15	$54	+$39	34% 170-325 (495)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 47¢	$62.72	$50.04	-$12.68	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cavaliersavg 15¢	$10.8	$38.88	+$28.08	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 69.1¢	$51.82	$28.12	-$23.71	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 66¢	$39.6	$22.5	-$17.1	51% 528-501 (1029)

Zzzz87CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$719.1

Value

$380.7

PnL

-$338.4

Record

62%

104-64 (168)

Flaznorp

Cavaliers

Invested

$161.53

Value

$314.64

PnL

+$153.11

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

38791873984189

Cavaliers

Invested

$75.48

Value

$250.86

PnL

+$175.38

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$86.47

Value

$99.66

PnL

+$13.19

Record

46%

558-656 (1214)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$67.5

Value

$56.25

PnL

-$11.25

Record

49%

572-596 (1168)

BoomLaLa<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$15

Value

$54

PnL

+$39

Record

34%

170-325 (495)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$62.72

Value

$50.04

PnL

-$12.68

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

Pan9X<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$10.8

Value

$38.88

PnL

+$28.08

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$51.82

Value

$28.12

PnL

-$23.71

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$39.6

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$17.1

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Cavaliers 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+33 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.