Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (42%) · Mavericks at 81¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Cavaliers20¢Mavericks80¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 42%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$147.5

Smart Money Entry

71.4¢ → 80.5¢

+13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers20%

Mavericks81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,270

Combined PnL+$250.45

Cavaliers7 traders

Total Value$334.16

Total Shares1,434

Combined PnL-$102.95

Mavericks — 42%Cavaliers — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCavaliers 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Cavaliers 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Mavericksavg 56.5¢	$627.19	$855.36	+$228.17	41% 26-38 (64)
ZZ Zzzz87	Mavericksavg 82¢	$820	$805	-$15	63% 99-59 (158)
SU SunlineTicker	Mavericksavg 76.9¢	$760.51	$791.06	+$30.55	70% 1725-752 (2477)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cavaliersavg 43¢	$241.2	$145.25	-$95.96	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Mavericksavg 82¢	$100	$97.56	-$2.44	39% 3708-5917 (9625)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 23¢	$57.5	$57.5	+$0	49% 300-314 (614)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 18¢	$50.04	$54.21	+$4.17	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 20.5¢	$41	$39	-$2	35% 166-306 (472)
GC GC-P<$100	Mavericksavg 58¢	$27.96	$37.13	+$9.16	39% 419-652 (1071)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 25.2¢	$39.24	$30.42	-$8.82	45% 277-332 (609)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 18¢	$6.12	$6.63	+$0.51	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 40¢	$2	$1.15	-$0.85	41% 708-1019 (1727)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Mavericks

Invested

$627.19

Value

$855.36

PnL

+$228.17

Record

41%

26-38 (64)

Zzzz87

Mavericks

Invested

$820

Value

$805

PnL

-$15

Record

63%

99-59 (158)

SunlineTicker

Mavericks

Invested

$760.51

Value

$791.06

PnL

+$30.55

Record

70%

1725-752 (2477)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$241.2

Value

$145.25

PnL

-$95.96

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$100

Value

$97.56

PnL

-$2.44

Record

39%

3708-5917 (9625)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$57.5

Value

$57.5

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

300-314 (614)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$50.04

Value

$54.21

PnL

+$4.17

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$41

Value

$39

PnL

-$2

Record

35%

166-306 (472)

GC-P<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$27.96

Value

$37.13

PnL

+$9.16

Record

39%

419-652 (1071)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$39.24

Value

$30.42

PnL

-$8.82

Record

45%

277-332 (609)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$6.12

Value

$6.63

PnL

+$0.51

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$0.85

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCavaliers 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Cavaliers 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.